When he took office in January 2017 there were 145 million Americans in employment. As for policy in a second term, analysts at the US credit rating agency Moody’s estimate that Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plans would boost the US economy more than Donald Trump’s proposed tax cuts. The US President made some audacious promises when he was elected. It has since bounced back strongly, but hasn't regained all its losses. It has not “exceeded expectations,” as he claimed in a speech Tuesday in New York. Trump and Obama (and their admirers) are slugging it out, both claiming that it is their policies that have led to the ongoing economic expansion, steady job growth and higher stock prices. I provide independent research of technology companies and was previously one of two analysts that determined the technology holdings for Atlantic Trust (Invesco's high net worth group), a firm with $15 billion under management. In 2016 Donald Trump was clear that he would not just increase jobs, but wages too. Beyond the infrastructure spending, Trump’s economic policies include across-the-board tax cuts for individuals and a slashing of corporate taxes down to 15 percent from 35 percent. On employment, the U.S. economy added 6.6 million jobs in Trump’s first three years, shy of the 8.1 million payroll gains in the last three years under Obama. The existing Open Comments threads will continue to exist for those who do not subscribe to Independent Premium. Did he deliver? So in that sense there is scant benefit to US ordinary workers from the trade wars. Between February and April 2020 22 million jobs were lost. I cover technology companies, worldwide economies and the stock market, EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, How Digital Workflows Helped Save Basketball During The Pandemic, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Michigan Economic Development Corporation With Forbes Insights, What Investors Need To Know As Moderna’s Vaccine Rolls Out. Are you sure you want to mark this comment as inappropriate? Trade. The number of manufacturing jobs in the US grew by around 500,000 under Trump’s first three years to 12.8 million in 2019. Its goals looked to be overly ambitious and didn’t tackle the really tough items on the agenda. During Trump’s three years in office, it has fallen 1.2% and the decrease was essentially a continuation from the Great Recession’s recovery. Since April some 12 million jobs have been created, bringing the jobless rate back down to 7.9 per cent. He has delivered on promises to … Due to the sheer scale of this comment community, we are not able to give each post the same level of attention, but we have preserved this area in the interests of open debate. And their doubts have been vindicated. President Donald Trump presides over an administration that has seen an enormous level of controversy that could overshadow a burgeoning economy. One of the flashiest economic claims that Donald Trump made when he was running for president in 2016 was that it was possible to raise the growth rate of America’s gross domestic product to … The average quarterly economic growth under Trump, 2.5 percent, was almost exactly what it was under Obama in the second term, 2.4 percent. And, as Americans prepare to go to the polls again, how credible is Trump’s claim that, if re-elected on 3 November, he would “again build the greatest economy in history”? With it falling back to 2.3% in 2019 it appears that tax cut was essentially a sugar rush for one year. The Covid hurricane has plainly upended the US economy, crushing activity by a record amount and sending joblessness soaring. If anything, those economic policies that he did manage to enact probably did more harm than good. Did Trump really build the ‘strongest economy in the world’? On top of this researchers found that deliberately targeted retaliatory tariffs from China on US exports hit firms in Republican-voting areas the hardest. The gains are largely driven for the same reasons as the Dow, but one interesting aspect is that the $1 trillion market cap companies (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet/Google) have had an outsized influence on the index. A first estimate of $10.5 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years was reported on January 19, 2017,[190]although cuts of … Just like the Dow, the Fed lowering interest rates and flooding the economy with cash has led to higher valuation levels while company profits were stagnant last year. Mr Trump came to power with unrealistic promises to create 25m jobs and supercharge economic growth, and to that end cut taxes and boosted spending, widening the fiscal deficit … In remarks and a question-and-answer session, Mr. Trump continued to portray himself as a savior of what had been a moribund economy, trumpeting … During his campaign, Trump promised to repeal and replace Obamacare. Trump didn’t do himself any favors with the trade wars he started and even the signing of the Phase One trade agreement with China looks like an overpromise and under-deliver deal given the goals that were agreed to. What’s Next? For much of the past four years Trump’s twitter feed while he has been in office has been dominated by boasts about the performance of the stock market.   Although he wasn't successful, Trump launched many initiatives that weakened the law. But despite the boost to companies’ cash flows, investment by firms has fallen rather than increased. All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. President Trump and former President Obama both claim credit for the economy. Over the past 10 years it has fallen to 3.6% and has been bounced between 3.5% and 3.7% over the past nine months. “I’m going to be the greatest jobs president God ever created” was Donald Trump’s pledge when he officially announced he was running for President in June 2015. But, as we have seen, there has been little evidence of any uplift in GDP growth in recent years. Should You Buy Intuitive Surgical Stock At $775 Levels? Did Trump Create or Inherit the Strong Economy? There has been some evidence of US companies importing less from abroad as a result of Trump’s trade hostilities towards China. The Phase One deal includes very ambitious goals for China to buy U.S. agricultural products. After Canada and Mexico, China is the third largest buyer of U.S. goods. Start your Independent Premium subscription today. And the US government’s $2.2 trillion stimulus package has supported many incomes so far this year – indeed around three quarters of unemployed Americans according to one estimate earned less than the new $600 a week jobless benefit that was introduced. Under Trump the trade deficit has grown to over $600 billion the past two years despite trying to decrease it via the trade wars he has started. You may opt-out by. Claim: "In 2016, the Department of Labor predicted that Americans would continue dropping out of the workforce in record numbers." The S&P 500 has risen just a bit less in percentage terms than the Dow. This is a shortfall to Trump’s claim that the economy could grow 4%, 5% or maybe even 6% when he was President. As recently as last month, as the coronavirus crisis raged, and millions remained unemployed, Trump tweeted, "My Administration and I built the greatest economy in history, of any country, turned it off, saved millions of lives, and now am building an … Want an ad-free experience?Subscribe to Independent Premium. Trump, who currently touts statistics about economic growth, criticized them when they didn’t go in his favor in the past. Trump and his economic advisers initially pledged to radically decrease federal spending in order to reduce the country's budget deficit. But this aid is lapsing and if it is not replaced there is likely to be a major negative impact on Americans’ living standards. Trump's trade policies seek to reduce the U.S. trade deficit. The Dow 30 Industrials has risen over 10,000 points or just under 60% since Trump was elected. That's a big increase, it means the economy is growing almost twice as fast under Trump as it did under Obama. Beyond the infrastructure spending, Trump’s economic policies include across-the-board tax cuts for individuals and a slashing of corporate taxes down to … Yet more than 60 per cent of the tax savings went to people in the top fifth of the income ladder, according to the independent Tax Policy Centre. Yet the Kearney analysts warn this was more attributable to a drop in imports from the traditional Asian economies rather than a significant rise in US manufacturing output. Wage growth has taken a step up during Trump’s Presidency, but fell off a bit in 2019. “New factories will come rushing back to our shores,” promised Trump in 2016. As Americans prepare to go to the polls four years on, Ben Chu looks into what promises Donald Trump has – and hasn’t – delivered, Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile. Median weekly earnings for full-time workers grew by around 3.6 per cent between the final quarter of 2016 and the final quarter of 2019. Using the comparable period in Barack Obama’s second term (January 2013 to December 2015) the number of jobs also rose by around 7 million. Here’s Why Biogen Stock Can Offer Over 35% Gains, released its first estimate for 2019’s fourth quarter GDP growth and for the full year, Federal budget deficit has ballooned to $1 trillion levels not seen in a non-recessionary environment, even when corporate profits were essentially flat, Phase One trade agreement with China looks like an overpromise and under-deliver deal, it appears that tax cut was essentially a sugar rush for one year, Trump’s claim that the economy could grow 4%, 5% or maybe even 6% when he was President, Trump touted that 25 million jobs could be added over 10 years, Obama added over 1.6 million more jobs in his last three years in office compared to Trump’s first three years, but they are helping to balloon the federal budget deficit, led to valuation multiples increasing while company profits were flat last year, led to higher valuation levels while company profits were stagnant last year, markets will need earnings growth to rise significantly this year, expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2020 and beyond, be easy to eliminate not just the deficit but also the Federal debt, One group that has been especially hard hit is soybean farmers, to be very hard to achieve under the best of circumstances, there are already rumblings that these won’t be met. 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